Para empezar, Trump consiguió llegar a las personas adecuadas -las cuales le votaron-, a base de fanfarronear, sabía lo que estaba haciendo. Estaba todo medido como ya dije en el anterior post: "No te enojes con Donald Trump" CLICA AQUÍ, pero ahora, tendrá la responsabilidad más grande de su vida y si quiere tener alguna posibilidad de estar por más de 4 años en la Casa Blanca, le tendrá que bajar “dos rayitas” a su discurso y evidentemente México y EEUU deberán seguir manteniendo una buena comunicación bilateral. Para todos aquellos que se quejan de que el presidente de México ya le felicitó, obviamente, también todos los demás presidentes por cortesía, no creo que quieran empezar una guerra a estas alturas, sean sensatos, no podemos simplemente mandarlo a la mi... ¡Por favor! hay que ser más inteligentes.

De todas maneras, no creo que le convenga frenar las importaciones poniendo aranceles y subiendo el precio de cualquier cosa que entre a EEUU, lavadora, coche, comida etc. Pero, pensemos por un momento que si lo hace, ¿Que opciones tendrá México?

Por fortuna México es una de las economías más dinámicas que existen, y si alguien se está riendo ahora mismo, mejor que no siga leyendo y punto.

Este país tiene más de 11 tratados de comercio con más de 40 países, si quieres saber con más detalles que tratados tiene, e información extra sobre la economía de exportación te invito a que leas mi otro artículo en la página de finanzas de grupo Maderal –clica aquí-.

Volviendo a si nos afecta. Entendemos que sí nos afecta si toca el tratado (TLCAN) de 1994, pero eso supondría que ellos mismos pagarían muy caro cesarlo o modificarlo, muchas cosas se encarecerían para ellos, se me hace muy difícil y tonto que se tocara ese tratado…aunque hablando de tonto…. En ese tratado está también Canadá. Por otro lado, yo creo que el mayor problema podría derivar del retorno masivo de conciudadanos. México debe estar preparado para atender una posible ola de personas, darles apoyo, y lo más importante, darles trabajo, ese si es un tema delicado.

De todas formas lo modifique o no, debemos estar preparados para un decaimiento de las exportaciones hacia EEUU, lo podemos suplir reforzando las exportaciones hacia Asia, desde Tequila, carne de cerdo y café a China y Corea, hasta muebles a Japón o pescado a Taiwán. Tenemos un sinfín de acuerdos pendientes y de productos que encajan a la perfección en esos mercados emergentes, y tratar de mirar hacia el interior de este magnifico país, México tiene su tierra abandonada, necesita recurrir al consumo propio, de nuestros agricultores, de nuestras producciones. Sin duda, cuando una puerta se cierra, se abre una nueva oportunidad de hacer negocios, de nosotros depende si nos quedamos sentados, lamiéndonos las heridas, o reaccionamos al cambio. Trump no se tiene la culpa, tampoco los estadounidenses, ellos votaron a su gobernante, al igual que los mexicanos votaron al suyo.

 

Recuerda que puedes unirte a nuestra plataforma de inversión eToro con un regalo de mi parte si te suscribes desde aquí

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